Jinchuan Nickel Premium Drops by 200, Nickel Market Inquiry Activity Heats Up [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

February 26 Morning Meeting Summary

Refined Nickel:

SMM February 25 News: Spot Premiums: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 1,600-1,900 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,750 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan from the previous trading day. The premium/discount range for Russian nickel was -100 to 100 yuan/mt, remaining on par with the previous trading day. Futures: Nickel prices fluctuated after opening today, declining by 0.57% to a low of 123,820 yuan/mt. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan nickel fell by 200 yuan compared to the previous trading day, mainly due to poor performance in the afternoon session yesterday, leading to sluggish market transactions. Traders opted to lower prices to stimulate transactions, narrowing the premium range. From a technical perspective and market sentiment, the SHFE nickel 2503 contract showed fluctuating trends in the morning session, with trading volume below expectations. Downstream demand remained weak, and overall market activity was low. Regarding the price spread with nickel sulphate, nickel briquette prices were 123,450-123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,575 yuan/mt, down 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remained at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Ore:

Supply side, Indonesia has approved 207 RKABs, with APNI data indicating that the approved RKAB quota for 2025 is 298 million wmt. In January, most mines passed SIMBARA system reviews, and shipments proceeded normally. Demand side, the issuance of temporary quotas in Q4 2024 and reduced premiums left downstream smelters with about one month's worth of raw material inventory. From a supply-demand perspective, domestic trade nickel ore supply in Indonesia is relatively ample, with increased market circulation. Compared to the same period early last year, the supply looseness is more evident. However, as downstream smelters consume their inventories, SMM expects concentrated stockpiling after the Chinese New Year. Regarding market transactions, upstream and downstream negotiations were active this month, with market sentiment improving significantly compared to the previous week. In January, mainstream transaction premiums for Indonesian medium- to high-grade nickel ore were concentrated at $15-17, rising to $17-18 in early February, with some transactions exceeding $20 premiums. SMM expects Indonesian nickel ore prices to fluctuate upward in the future.

Nickel Sulphate:

On February 25, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,576 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,390-27,050 yuan/mt, and the average price slightly declined from the previous day.

Cost side, LME nickel prices weakened today, while cobalt prices rose, slightly lowering nickel sulphate costs. Demand side, this week marks the traditional procurement period for nickel sulphate, and precursor plants have yet to complete their March nickel salt inventories, prompting inquiries this week. Supply side, the degree of losses in nickel salt production has eased, and producers have softened their quotations. Comprehensive analysis suggests that weak market demand and softened prices from nickel salt smelters indicate short-term downward price potential.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):

On February 25, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 976 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, smelters remain in a loss-making phase, with production schedules expected to operate at low levels. In Indonesia, a major production area adjusted its production pace to reduce operating loads, and high-grade nickel ore resources are relatively tight, with declining grades in major production areas. Metal content is expected to decrease. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices saw slight declines, with sluggish market transactions. Stainless steel mills, having stocked inventories earlier and benefited from improved stainless steel scrap economics, showed weakened demand for high-grade NPI. However, supported by costs and tight spot supply, prices are expected to remain relatively stable with a strong trend in the short term.

Stainless Steel:

On February 25, the stainless steel market was relatively quiet, with sluggish inquiries and low spot trading volumes, reflecting a lack of market vitality.

As of 10:30, the SHFE stainless steel futures most-traded SS2505 contract was quoted at 13,210 yuan/mt. In Wuxi, stainless steel spot premiums ranged from -40 to 260 yuan/mt. Note: Spot trimmed-edge price = rough-edge price + 170 yuan/mt.

In the spot market, stainless steel spot prices for different grades were as follows: 201/2B coil (Wuxi, Foshan) ranged from 7,700-7,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 7,750 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B coil (Wuxi, Foshan, and other regions) ranged from 13,000-13,800 yuan/mt, with a nationwide average price of 13,170 yuan/mt, remaining stable. The nationwide average price for 316L/2B coil was 24,125 yuan/mt. The average price for 430/2B coil in Wuxi was 7,400 yuan/mt, with slight fluctuations in Foshan, and the nationwide average price was 7,395 yuan/mt, showing a slight decline from the previous day.

Currently, stainless steel market inventory remains high, with relatively ample supply, while demand recovery is slow. Downstream industries such as construction, home appliances, and kitchenware show weak purchase willingness for stainless steel, leading to limited market transactions. Under these pronounced supply-demand imbalances, stainless steel prices lack upward momentum, and the market is likely to maintain a fluctuating downward trend in the short term. Market participants should closely monitor raw material price changes, downstream demand recovery, and futures market trends to adjust their business strategies promptly.